Intelligence, compute, embodiment, and sovereign demand compound on each other
We invest across the full stack of the AI supercycle, not a single slice of it.
These four themes are the interlocking layers of one supercycle, not four separate bets. Frontier AI drives demand for compute, compute makes intelligence cheap enough to embody in robotics, and the same autonomy and silicon stack is being absorbed into a re-armed defense and space economy backed by sovereign capital. Each layer capitalizes the next.
Global inference demand
Global token processing has gone from 1.7Q to ~11Q per month in a year.
Cost per unit of capability is collapsing ~10x annually. Cheaper intelligence doesn't shrink the compute bill; it expands what gets deployed.
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Mid-25 | 1.7Q |
| May-26 | 5.6Q |
| Jul-26 | 11Q |
| 2028 | 47Q |
| Mid-30 | 120Q |
Cumulative compute capacity
Training and inference demand are driving the largest capex super-cycle in tech history.
Hyperscaler spend exceeds $400B annually, and access to chips, power, and data center capacity has become a geopolitical priority.
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Q1'22 | 47K |
| Q1'23 | 0.4M |
| Q1'24 | 2.1M |
| Q1'25 | 7.4M |
| Q3'25 | 17M |
Humanoid robots installbase
AI breakthroughs are pulling the commercial timeline forward - end-to-end AI is enabling faster humanoid iterations.
The cost curve is collapsing faster than expected - bill of materials costs fell ~40% in a single year to $150K per unit.
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 25K |
| 2029 | 180K |
| 2031 | 620K |
| 2033 | 1.5M |
| 2035 | 3.0M |
NATO Europe defense spending
A decade of European under-investment is now reversing at unprecedented speed - the sharpest rise since the Cold War.
The Hague Summit 2025 locked in a structural commitment: NATO members pledged to reach 3.5% of GDP on core defense by 2035.
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2010 | 1.65 |
| 2015 | 1.42 |
| 2020 | 1.71 |
| 2025 | 2.33 |
| 2035 | 3.50 |
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